Forecasting of the Discharge In-patients with Coronary Artery Disease at Faculty of Medicine Vajira Hospital: Time Series Analysis (Simple Exponential Smoothing Method)

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Sumittra Muangkhoua

Abstract

Objective: To forecast the number of in-patients with coronary artery disease discharged from hospital during fiscal year 2559-2563 at Faculty of Medicine Vajira Hospital by using time series analysis (simple exponential smoothing method).
Methods: This is a historical cohort study using time series analysis to forecast the number of in-patients with coronary artery disease discharged from hospital during fiscal year 2559-2563. The sample was number of in-patients with coronary artery disease in ICD-10 codes I25 discharged from hospital during fiscal year 2549-2558 and data was collected from statistics annual report of fiscal year 2549-2558 of the Faculty of Medicine Vajira Hospital, Navamindradhiraj University. The criteria to assess the accuracy of the forecasting in this study include Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE).
Results: The number of in-patients with coronary artery disease expected to discharge in fiscal year 2559 is at least equal to 608 cases per year implying a smoothing constant or α equal to 1 with least error of forecasting (MAD = 162.78, MAPE = 19.01% and MSE = 36749.67). The accuracy of the forecast was good and appropriate. In the fiscal year 2560-2563 at least equal to 608 cases is expected to be discharges per year with least error of forecasting (MAD = 104.64, MAPE = 12.22% and MSE = 23624.79) in fiscal year 2563.
Conclusion: To forecast the number of in-patients with coronary artery disease discharged per year in fiscal year 2559-2563 at Faculty of Medicine Vajira Hospital using time series analysis (simple exponential smoothing method) implying a smoothing constant value is equal to 1. The number of in-patients with coronary artery disease expected to discharge in fiscal year 2559 -2563 is at least equal to 608 cases per year.

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