การศึกษาเทคนิคการพยากรณ์แบบอนุกรมเวลาที่เหมาะสม กรณีศึกษา: โรงงานผลิตอาหารสัตว์

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to explore and find sales forecasting equation of feed mill. Time Series Method consist of three ways including of Moving Average Method, Double Exponential Smoothing Method and also is applied by the multiplication of trend, seasonal and Irregular index (T x S x I). The data analysis used each product sales for 36 months and analyzed by statistics analysis program. They has been collected decision to select the most appropriate method of forecasting, we had determined from the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The three ways forecasting analysis results using applied the multiplication of trend, seasonal and Irregular index (T x S x I) is most fit appropriately. The value of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is approximately to 24.6% and percentage error reduced to 6,821.36 ton.