Impact of electric vehicles use on overall electricity demand
This paper presents a method for determining the electricity demands under condition of the use of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the transport sector according to the assumption that traditional internal combustion vehicles (ICVs) will be replaced by BEVs. The rate of oil used by the land transport sector at present, including the energy efficiency of ICVs and BEVs, were considered under the principle of energy conservation. The growth rate of energy consumption was estimated from rate of past fuel consumption. The trend in the ordinary electricity demand was calculated from previously recorded data using a linear regression method. The electricity demand by the land transport sector and the rate of growth were merged with the ordinary electricity demand via logistic regression. This method was applied to the transport sector in Thailand, assuming BEVs would constitute 30% of land transport. The results revealed the amount of electricity that should be prepared for rising up of BEVs in transport world, and BEVs will cause a perceptible change in the previous trend of overall electricity demand.
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